Will China and Japan go into another war?


The dispute over Daoyu or Senkakus Islands has been going on for a while. Thousands of protesters took the streets, rallied in front of the Japanese embassy and Japanese factories in China in opposition to Japan’s purchasing three islands from the private owners. The voice from those Chinese who reside outside the country hasn’t been dwarfed by the distance either. The Chinese community in New York City marched and flared signs of patriotic words in midtown last Sunday. Many Japanese factories including Toyota and Honda had to shut down for the time being for securities reasons. The push for blocking the purchase of Japanese products spiked again. The anger is extra-pronounced because the deal was reached around the time of the battle 81 years ago that marked the beginning of the full-scale war between the two countries. The leftover unresolved resentment from the war against Japan surely added fuel to the recent mishap.

So the question that everyone is asking is that will the two countries go to war, again?

China surely hasnt backed down on this, and several ships sent out around the islands confirmed the strong attitude that China is really unhappy about the purchase. The dispute is destined to happen, at east for political reasons. Japan is seeing re-election and China is creating drum rolls and positive image for the president-to-be Xi Jinping to take seat at the central chair.

I will be seriously surprised if China and Japan start a war over these bunch of rocks. Retaliation and counter-retaliation have been the game between the two countries. This is just another one of these times. The two countries signed a settlement over resource development in the eastern sea, where Japan could own shares in the Chunxiao natural gas and oil field that has already been pre-developed by China. The Chinese government has been under huge rhetorical and economic pressure since the settlement. Plus the block of rare earth essentials to Japan has not been very successful due to WTO restrictions. China has been looking for an outlet for all the embarrassment and economic setbacks. The recent dispute is perfect for this.

Now China can ride along the patriotic protesters and go into another cycle of economics restrictions of Japanese products, cars being on the front line. The Japanese car sales is taking another blow after the natural disasters last year. 

China also has disputes with other countries to worry about, such as Korea and Taiwan. One thing that works against China is that most of the countries that China dont really see eye to eye have strong ties with America, and China really needs to carefully maneuver in between. And a serious wars should not on the list skillful maneuvers.




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